IHME models: Hospital resource use, daily deaths to peak by Easter Sunday

Medical personnel wearing personal protective equipment remove bodies from the Wyckoff Heights Medical Center Thursday, April 2, 2020 in the Brooklyn borough of New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

OAN Newsroom
UPDATED 1:52 PM PT — Thursday, April 9, 2020

The latest modeling has shown a sooner peak date for hospital resource use and daily deaths stemming from COVID-19. The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) changed their projections overnight on Thursday, showing the peak day for U.S. hospital resource use and the amount of daily deaths happening by Easter Sunday.

Medical resource use is projected to hit its plateau by this Saturday, while the peak daily death rate is expected to peak on Sunday.

This came after the IHME updated its models for the total death toll to about 60,000 people, which is expected to hit by August. This new number was significantly lower than the White House coronavirus task force’s projection, which stood at 100,000 to 200,000 deaths, even in a perfect scenario.

However, Dr. Anthony Fauci has cautioned Americans about letting their guard down.

“I believe we are going to see a downturn in that, it looks more like the 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000. But having said that, we’d better be careful that we don’t say, ‘Okay, we’re doing so well, we can pull back.’ We still have to put our foot on the accelerator when it comes to the mitigation and physical separation.” – Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases

The doctor has said he remains cautiously optimistic the virus could be under control by the summer, but only if the country has measures in place to address a possible resurgence. This would include preemptive identification, isolation and contact tracing.

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