Analysis: GOP Projected to Win 25-Seat House Edge in Midterms (James Vallee | Dreamstime.com)
By Eric Mack | Sunday, 31 July 2022 02:14 PM EDT
A 2022 midterm model by the CBS News Battleground Tracker shows Republicans winning a 25-seat majority in the House, if the November elections were to be held today.
Using polling data, the analysis concluded Republicans holding 230 seats to 205 for Democrats, which is outside the margin of error. The House majority requires just 218 seats.
The analysis outlined the top reasons the GOP is leading:
- The top issue for voters polled is "the way things are in the country," and the GOP is up 16 points among those basing their decision on it.
- Republicans hold 4-point edge on likely voters over Democrats.
- Redistricting: "Republicans get a lot of bang for their buck in translating even relatively small vote shifts into seat flips," according to the analysis.
Both President Joe Biden's existing administration's struggles and former President Donald Trump's lasting influence over voters years after he left office remain potent.
When asked how much the vote for Congress is about Biden, 62% of likely Republican voters replied "a lot." That figure was just 39% among Democrat voters. At "least some" was the response for a combined majority of Democrats (74%) and Republicans (76%).
While Trump is almost two years removed from office, he still holds almost as much influence on these midterms as the sitting president: 47% say this vote is a lot about Biden, while 45% say it is a lot about Trump.
Also, registered Republicans were more likely to say Trump is fighting for the issues important to them (82%) than Republicans in Congress (68%).
On gender, women are less likely – by double digits – than men to be enthusiastic about voting in these midterm elections. Among registered voters, a 56% majority of men are very enthusiastic compared to just 44% of women – which had been a key demographic for Democrats in past elections, according to CBS's analysis.
Also, younger voters – another key Democrat-controlled voting bloc – are the least likely to be enthusiastic about voting. Majorities of older voters are very enthusiastic, according to the polling:
- 65+ years old 63%.
- 45-64 years old 53%.
- 30-44 years old 40%.
- 18-29 years old 34%.
Among the key demographics, Republicans have closed the gap on Hispanic voters to within the margin of error. Likely Hispanic voters are going for Democrats with 45% support in the poll, while Republicans are now pulling 42% with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
"Democrats won Hispanic voters easily in the last midterm elections, and this will be another key factor worth watching, especially across a string of competitive districts in the South and West," according to CBS's analysis.
The CBS News Battleground Tracker was conducted July 27-29 among 1,743 registered voters and an overall margin of error of plus or minis 3 percentage points.