Emerson Poll: Oz Stalks Lead, but Undecided Voters Lean Toward McCormick

Emerson Poll: Oz Stalks Lead, but Undecided Voters Lean Toward McCormick Emerson Poll: Oz Stalks Lead, but Undecided Voters Lean Toward McCormick

David McCormick is shown in this Nov. 20, 2016, photo, He is running in the 2022 Republican primary election for the Pennsylvania seat being vacated by two-term Sen. Pat Toomey. (Carolyn Kaster/AP File)

By Eric Mack | Thursday, 07 April 2022 08:53 PM

While Dr. Mehmet Oz is within the margin of error for the lead in Emerson College's Pennsylvania Senate GOP primary poll, the very likely undecided voters are siding heavily with David McCormick.

McCormick leads Oz in polling by 1 point (18%-17%) when undecided is an option, but is an overwhelming favorite among those likely voters, leading by 6.6 points when undecided is not an option.

Early April polling for Pennsylvania's Senate GOP primary:

  • McCormick: 18%.
  • Oz: 17%.
  • Kathy Barnette: 10%.
  • Jeff Bartos: 9%.
  • Carla Sands: 8%
  • George Bochetto: 4%
  • Sean Gale: 3%.
  • Undecided: 33%.

When very likely GOP primary voters were forced to make a choice, McCormick's lead widens considerably:

  1. McCormick: 27.2%.
  2. Oz: 20.6%.
  3. Bartos: 17.1%.
  4. Barnette: 14.8%.
  5. Sands: 11.4%.
  6. Bochetto 4.6%.
  7. Gale 4.3%.

"McCormick has a strong base of support across most demographics that increases when undecided voters are asked who they lean toward, compared to Oz who seems to lack a clear base, and sees less growth than McCormick, Bartos, or Barnette," wrote Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in a statement Thursday.

This race is one of the most hotly contested GOP primaries in this election cycle.

The Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial primary is similarly shaping up as a two-candidate race, according to the Emerson poll:

  • Lou Barletta: 20%.
  • Doug Mastriano: 19%
  • David White: 12%.
  • Bill McSwainL 8%.
  • Jake Corman III: 4%.
  • Melissa Hart: 3%
  • Joseph Gale: 3%.
  • Charles Gerow: 3%
  • Nche Zama: 2%.
  • Undecided: 27%.

When undecided voters were forced to choose, the leader expanded his edge here, too:

  • Barletta: 26.2%.
  • Mastriano: 22.4%.
  • White: 14.2%.
  • McSwain: 11.9%.
  • Corman: 7.6%.
  • Hart: 6.9%
  • Gale: 4.1%
  • Gerow: 3.6%
  • Zama: 3.1%.

"Barletta holds the plurality of support among suburban (28%) and urban (24%) voters, while Mastriano leads Barletta among rural voters 30% to 25%," Kimball noted. "Barletta also leads all age groups except those aged 50-64, where Mastriano holds 29% of this age bloc's support."

The Emerson College/The Hill Pennsylvania Republican primary poll was conducted April 3-4 among 1,000 very likely Republican primary voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Original Article