Emerson Poll: Trump Leads GOP for 2024

Emerson Poll: Trump Leads GOP for 2024 supporters of former president donald trump hold a flag (Chandan Khanna/Getty Images)

By Charlie McCarthy | Friday, 01 July 2022 09:01 AM EDT

Former President Donald Trump continues to hold a big lead among contenders to top the 2024 Republican national ticket, Emerson College Polling results showed Friday.

Trump also continues to defeat President Joe Biden in a 2020 election rematch, Emerson College Polling (ECP) found.

Trump (55%) clearly was the choice of GOP voters for 2024, Emerson results showed. He was followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (20%) and former Vice President Mike Pence (9%). No other potential Republican candidate received more than 5%.

A total of 64% of Democrat voters said Biden should be the party's 2024 nominee, while 36% said he should not be.

In a hypothetical 2020 rematch, Trump holds a five-point (44%-39%) over Biden. A total of 12% said they would vote for someone else, and 5% were undecided.

"Since last month, Trump has held his share of support while Biden's support has reduced four points," ECP Executive Director Spencer Kimball said.

The Emerson poll found that the House Jan. 6 select committee hearings have had a split impact on voters' intentions to vote for Trump in 2024 if he were to run.

A total of 35% said the hearings made it less likely they would vote for the former president, 32% said they were more likely, and 28% said the hearings made no difference.

"Half of Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Trump following the January 6th hearings, while a plurality, 38%, of Independents say they are less likely to support Trump if he runs in 2024," Kimball said.

"More specifically, among those who voted for Trump in 2020, nine percent say they are less likely to vote for him again in 2024 after the hearings."

Kimball added that the Jan. 6 panel's hearings "reflect an educational divide, regarding their impact on Trump support."

"Those with a college degree or less are about 33% less likely to vote for Trump because of the hearings, whereas 51% of those with a postgraduate degree are less likely to support Trump because of the hearings,” Kimball said.

The Emerson College Polling national poll of voters was conducted June 28-29 among 1,271 registered voters. The data sets were weighted by gender, region, age, education, and race/ethnicity based on 2022 turnout modeling.

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