Pollster: Voter Turnout Will Decide Georgia GOP Gubernatorial Race

Pollster: Voter Turnout Will Decide Georgia GOP Gubernatorial Race david perdue gestures as donald trump looks on at a save america rally Former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., and former President Donald Trump (Evan Vucci/AP)

By Charlie McCarthy | Monday, 23 May 2022 02:46 PM

Voter turnout will determine Tuesday's Georgia gubernatorial Republican primary between Gov. Brian Kemp and former Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., one pollster said Sunday.

The latest InsiderAdvantage survey showed Kemp with 52% support, followed by Perdue (38%) — who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump — and political newcomers Kandiss Taylor (6%) and Catherine Davis 1%. A total of 3% remained undecided.

"Gov. Brian Kemp continues to lead the race, but the contest is closer than recent polls have suggested," InsiderAdvantage Georgia Chairman Matt Towery said. "We detected a tightening of this race several weeks ago and it has basically remained in the range of our last poll for Fox-5 Atlanta."

"With a very small percent of undecided voters remaining, this Georgia race will depend on Election Day turnout. While early voting has been very robust, we remain cautious about declaring this some massive turnout. As Georgians have become increasingly aware of early voting, we find that Election Day numbers can be disappointing."

The pollster also predicted weather forecast for Tuesday would affect the results.

"With rain in the forecast for Tuesday it is likely only the most motivated voters will participate," Towery said. "While these numbers still show a Kemp win without a runoff, that could be determined by who turns out on Tuesday.

"Regardless, we believe some polls have set an impossible level for Kemp to achieve and that these numbers, within the margin of error and the 3% undecided, are a more reasonable reflection of the race as it stands today."

Trump on Friday slammed reports he had given up on Perdue after a poll showed Kemp held a 32-points advantage.

"The Kemp campaign, together with fake news NBC, has put out a phony narrative that I have given up on David Perdue in Georgia," Trump posted on Truth Social.

"That is completely false! I am with David all the way because Brian Kemp was the worst governor in the country on election integrity!"

Towery said the Trump factor was a big reason it was difficult to predict accurately the race's outcome.

"In polling other states, we have learned that support for candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump is harder to detect and that the numbers for the endorsed candidate in the election results outperform the numbers as polled," Towery said.