Trafalgar Poll: California Recall a Near Toss Up in Final Days

Trafalgar Poll: California Recall a Near Toss Up in Final Days Trafalgar Poll: California Recall a Near Toss Up in Final Days Firefighters from various locations stand behind Republican recall candidate Larry Elder speaks at a campaign stop in his attempt to unseat Gov. Gavin Newsom in the upcoming on Sept. 9, 2021 in Glendale, California. (David McNew/Getty Images)

By Eric Mack | Monday, 13 September 2021 08:12 PM

With voting in the California recall closing Tuesday night, the possibility of Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom being recalled was nearly a toss up, winding up just outside the margin of error, according to the latest Trafalgar Group poll.

The poll found just 53% of likely California recall election voters support voting "no" to recall Newsom, while nearly 45% say he should be recalled in the state.

Voting ends Tuesday in the race that could oust Newsom, a first-term Democrat, and it is being watched ahead of the 2022 midterm elections, when control of Congress and more than half of governorships are in play.

It should be noted the Trafalgar Group replicated California's near 25% representation of Republican likely voters, heavily weighting its poll in favor of Democrats to reflect the state's true leanings in elections.

The poll representation:

  • Democrat 48.1%.
  • No party or independent 26.2%.
  • Republican 25.7%.

With that representation, some might see it as surprising GOP candidate Larry Elder is the overwhelming favorite when asked which candidate would they "likely support to replace" Newsom.

Notably GOP candidate Caitlyn Jenner was a distant ninth, according to the poll:

  1. Elder 41%.
  2. Kevin Paffrath 9.5%.
  3. Kevin Faulconer 3.8%.
  4. Kevin Kiley 3.6%.
  5. Jacqueline McGowan 3.6%.
  6. John Cox 2.7%.
  7. Brandon Ross 1.3%.
  8. John Drake 1.2%.
  9. Caitlyn Jenner 0.9%.

There were 22.9% undecided, while 9.4% supported another candidate.

The Trafalgar Group polled 1,083 likely recall election voters Sept. 11-13, and the poll results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.98 percentage points.

Original Article