Poll: Most Independents Believe Family, Friends Conceal Election Picks

Poll: Most Independents Believe Family, Friends Conceal Election Picks

(Newsmax/"Wake Up America")

By Jay Clemons | Thursday, 03 November 2022 08:59 PM EDT

A new national poll reveals that more than 6 in 10 independent voters believe their friends and family are reluctant to share their true voting preferences ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.

For the Convention of States Action/Trafalgar Group survey, 66.3% of independent respondents were reasonably certain of family and friends being "afraid" to declare their voting intentions.

And among those who identified as Republicans, the same fear factor stands at 51.4%.

Convention of States President Mark Meckler said this particular survey went a different route in determining midterms voting preferences.

"Our pollster Robert Cahaly is famous for having devised a method to ask voters what they themselves think by asking what their neighbors think, and we wanted to apply that principle to understanding how voters feel in the current climate," said Meckler in a statement.

Meckler also noted the majority of independents appeared "to be breaking for Republicans in this poll, and interestingly that's about the same number who are afraid to say who they’ll vote for."

As a possible conclusion, Meckler added: "This indicates that the theory of the 'submerged voter' — voters so concerned about people finding out who they voted for that pollsters cannot detect them — will come into play in this midterm in a major way."

Another component to the poll: 60.1% of independents believe their family and friends will favor Republican candidates next week — nearly double the rate of surveygoers who surmise their friends and family will side with Democrat candidates (30.5%).

Also, 27% of surveygoers who identify as Democrats believe their friends and neighbors will focus on Republican candidates next week.

It's worth noting: This Trafalgar poll didn't list how many respondents were queried on the subject matter. However, the company traditionally implements a blend of live calls, text messages, emails and integrated voice responses for its surveys.

Prospective voters concealing candidate preferences seems to be a common theme these days.

As Newsmax chronicled two weeks ago, various Democratic polling groups have been exploring ways to find more accuracy with political surveys, after "understating support" for Donald Trump and other Republican candidates from the past two presidential elections.

As a starting point, the pollsters wanted to identify the root problem for inaccurate polling — aside from political leanings.

The No. 1 concern among pollsters and researchers, according to The Wall Street Journal: It involves consistently contacting hidden Republican voters who often shy away from taking political surveys — or even publicly touting their support for Trump and the "America First," or Make American Great Again agenda.

One Democrat pollster, Tom Bonier, injected a dose of commonsense reality into his data collections.

For example, Bonier admitted to being skeptical of the Ohio Senate polling showing a virtual tie between candidates J.D. Vance (Republican) and Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio — given that Trump defeated Joe Biden by 8.1 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election and that Biden's job-approval numbers remain low in the Buckeye state.

Original Article