One year ago, Saudi Arabia and Israel were supposedly on the brink of a deal to normalize relations.
That deal has seemingly evaporated as Iran’s foreign minister visits the kingdom on Tuesday to discuss efforts to halt Israel’s incursions into Gaza and Lebanon.
“Our dialogue continues regarding the developments in the region to prevent the shameless crimes of the Zionist regime in Lebanon, in continuation of the crimes in Gaza,” Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a video broadcast on state media.
He added: “Starting today, I’ll begin a trip to the region, to Riyadh and other capitals, and we will strive for a collective movement from the countries of the region… to stop the brutal attacks in Lebanon.”
The Saudis share a longtime strategic partnership with the U.S. and are the largest purchaser of its weapons. But in recent years, they’ve had a political rapprochement with Iran.
Prospects of a deal between Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Saudi Arabia, led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, have faded. (Getty Images)
Last week, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, reaffirmed their neutrality in the conflict between Israel and Iran. Iran has warned that if “Israel supporters” intervene directly, their interests in the region would be targeted. That could mean missile strikes on their oil facilities.
Iran rained some 200 missiles down on Israel last week, many of which were intercepted by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with U.S. assistance.
“The Gulf states think it’s unlikely that Iran will strike their oil facilities, but the Iranians are dropping hints they might from unofficial sources. It’s a tool the Iranians have against the U.S. and the global economy,” Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator close to the royal court, said.
In 2019, drones attacked Saudi Arabia’s key refinery at Abqaiq, briefly shutting down around 5% of the world’s oil supply. Those drones originated in Iran, according to U.S. intelligence.
Prior to Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the Biden administration considered a proposed deal, akin to the Abraham Accords, a major priority. This deal aimed to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, including security guarantees and cooperation on civil nuclear matters. For months, the White House had been saying the deal was nearly done.
The prospect of a deal was largely blamed as a catalyst for the Hamas attacks.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, rained some 200 missiles down toward Tel Aviv last week, many of which were intercepted by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with U.S. assistance. (Iranian Leader Press Office/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, Oct. 1, 2024. (Reuters/Amir Cohen)
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“I don’t think we were ever really that close,” Robert Greenway, former senior director of the National Security Council, told Fox News Digital.
“We were closest probably in the waning days of the Trump administration, but we knew that that would be a second-term issue if there was to be one, and obviously that didn’t play out. I don’t know that the Biden-Harris administration ever took it that terribly seriously.”
Just before the Hamas attack, a group of 20 Democratic senators made clear their opposition to the treaty, voicing concerns over Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and that a peaceful nuclear energy program might one day be converted to a military one to produce a nuclear weapon.
And Oct. 7 changed the Saudis’ calculus: they now demand a plan for a Palestinian state.
“If anyone believes there was a chance of getting the House or Senate in an election year with virtually no majority, getting anything as controversial as a security treaty, with Saudi Arabia – permission for them to enrich with our blessing and support – I don’t know if anyone credibly believes that that was ever possible.”
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Former deputy national security adviser Victoria Coates was optimistic that the Saudis could be brought back into the fold.
“From what I’m hearing from both sides, it’s when, not if,” she said. “There are various reasons you might want to wait to find out what the makeup of the Congress is going to be… you’re going to need supportive majorities in the Senate to get [a civil nuclear agreement] through.”