Trafalgar Poll: Walker-Warnock Virtually Tied; Kemp Leads Abrams (Newsmax)
By Eric Mack | Tuesday, 11 October 2022 09:57 PM EDT
Despite some talk in the mainstream media about Democrat momentum, Republicans are holding up well in the key battleground state of Georgia, according to Tuesday's poll result from The Trafalgar Group.
Herschel Walker is in a statistical tie with incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, while incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp enjoys a 8.9-point lead in the rematch with Democrat firebrand Stacey Abrams, who claimed her past loss to Kemp was rigged and stolen in 2018.
Walker, endorsed emphatically by former President Donald Trump, trails Warnock by just 1.5 points (46.3% to 44.8%), which is well within the margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. That means the two are in a virtual tie with just weeks remaining in the campaign, which has featured both candidates attacking the other on family matters.
There remains 5.3% of likely voters undecided in a race that could determine which party holds the Senate majority come January. Also, the race in November could wind up in a runoff on Jan. 5, 2020, if neither candidate reaches 50% support on Election Day.
Kemp's rematch against Abrams is far more decisive right now among the likely voters in the poll. Kemp leads 52.5% to 43.6%, despite Kemp not having the endorsement of Trump. Just 2.2% of likely voters are undecided in that race.
While Trafalgar is considered a pollster friendly to Republicans, it has been one of the most accurate polls in the most recent election cycles. Also, this particular poll surveyed more Democrats 43.9% than Republicans 42.2%. The Pew Research Center has the party split with both Republicans and Democrats making up 41% of the electorate, making turning key to winning in these midterms.
Also, notably, a more left-leaning pollster Emerson College Polling released similar results in both races Tuesday.
The Trafalgar Group polled 1,084 likely midterm voters Oct. 8-11, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.